‘There is still value to the Ulster Bank brand here,’ says NI chief

It’s all part of a busy quarter for Ulster Bank in Northern Ireland which also brings its headline sponsorship of agricultural extravaganza the Balmoral Show in May.

For the world of business, there has also been a boost from the return of the Executive with Ulster Bank’s monthly survey, the Purchasing Managers’ Index, showing a continued pick-up of activity.

Mark Crimmins, head of Ulster Bank in Northern Ireland, is enjoying the injection of positivity but says he’s not getting carried away.

“Business is alright, it’s okay. We’re doing the numbers that we need to be doing and benchmarking relatively well against our peers across the rest of the UK.

“But if I’m saying it’s okay, I always say it with a slight bit of hesitancy. We’ve obviously had the recent shot in the arm around political institutions getting up and running, and our March PMI survey shows that.

“You would hope that that can be sustained a little bit but you’re always wary because of how we’ve become engrained to think that it could fall off the tramline any time.”

But there’s no doubt the conditions are right for improvements to take place, he says, including new Economy Minister Conor Murphy getting down to business. And he believes it could be time for us to see behind the hype of the Windsor Framework to see what it can do. “It feels like we’re on the cusp of something and you’ve got Conor in place, and he’s released his economic vision and it all looks very sensible.

“I think for the first time we’ve got the courage to talk about the Windsor Framework and what are the opportunities. But there’s always that hesitancy that certainly bankers in NI will always go ‘steady as she goes’.”

He says that to make him feel more secure, a year of continuous Northern Ireland government would help. “We’d like a period of stability where you see more certainty.

“That macro-economic stuff is starting to move in the right direction. If you look at inflation, it’s maybe not coming down quite as quick as some forecasters had predicted but it’s definitely coming down, interest rates will come down though they might take a bit longer.”

And even though Prime Minister Rishi Sunak trumpeted Northern Ireland as “the world’s most exciting economic zone” last year, Mark says we don’t know whether the Windsor Framework will bring the opportunities promised.

“Dual market access should give you relative competitive advantage but I haven’t seen the proof of it yet.

“I haven’t seen a lot of customers come to us and say ‘because of the enablement of the Windsor Framework, we’re going to stick an extra 100,000 sq ft onto our factory and enter all these new markets’. I think everyone knows to take Rishi and other politicians with a pinch of salt.”

Economic fundamentals like rising interest rates and inflation, now at 3.2%, have held back companies even more than the lack of devolved government.

“We have one customer in the agri-food sector who’s been looking at two or three major investments over the past few years, but with instability, particularly around inflation, the capital costs were just going up and up and up and up.”

He said it’s only now with inflation and cost increases slowing down that the investment is happening.

Interest rates are now 5.25% and had been tipped to fall much earlier in the year than will now turn out to be the case, Mark says, as the fall in inflation has failed to match expectations.

“If you ask my personal point of view, by this time next year, the interest rate will be down by 1%.

“That’s a reasonable assumption to make, it will be linked to inflation and economic performance more generally but I don’t see many dissenters against a 1% reduction this time next year.”

As head of Belfast Telegraph Business Awards chief sponsor Ulster Bank, he was part of the judging panel, and praises entrants to the category of Large Business of the Year as “exceptional, really, really strong”.

“The quality of the businesses who entered were first class. They’re all businesses that, if you feel personally invested in NI, they’re something to be proud of.”

He says the bank has been “very happy” to be associated with the awards, with Thursday’s ceremony at Belfast’s Crowne Plaza Hotel due to attract nearly 500 guests.

Mark says the bank gains the “marketing halo” of the use of its name, but that the awards also cover the full gamut of its own business.

“It’s whole of economy from start-ups to multi-nationals, and that’s reflected in the awards themselves

“Our corporate purpose is to champion potential, helping people, families and business thrive. And the awards are part of that and our corporate purpose.”

UIster Bank is part of NatWest Group and while its products and structure has been falling increasingly into line with NatWest, its brand name will remain Ulster Bank, Mark says.

Its balance sheet was collapsed into the NatWest balance sheet in 2021, so Ulster Bank in Northern Ireland no longer reports separate financial results.

But the bank has exited the Republic of Ireland market, a move which Mark admits did prompt some soul-searching. “We’ve debated this point over and over and the last big time of the debate was when the decision was made to close the Republic…

“But the bottom of line is there is still an association of value with the brand in Northern Ireland and people still value Ulster Bank functioning in Northern Ireland. We internally still feel a very strong emotive attachment to the brand especially those who have been around a long time.”